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中国海关总署:前10个月货物贸易进出口总值22.52万亿元

发布于:2018-11-05 14:36

11月8日,中国海关总署公布最新数据显示,前10个月货物贸易进出口总值22.52万亿元,比去年同期增长15.9%。其中出口12.41万亿元,增长11.7%;进口10.11万亿元,增长21.5%。
 
On November 8, the General Administration of Customs of China released the latest data showing that the total value of imports and exports of goods in the first 10 months was 22.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.9% over the same period last year. Of which, exports were 12 trillion and 410 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7%, and imports of 10 trillion and 110 billion yuan, an increase of 21.5%.
 
 
 
与贸易进出口总额稳步增长不同,10月份以人民币计价进出口增速双双不及市场预期。中国10月份进口增长15.9%,不及预期的17.5%,前值19.5%;出口增长6.1%,不及预期的7%,前值9.0%。
 
Unlike the steady growth of total trade imports and exports, the growth rate of imports and exports in October denominated in Renminbi was lower than the market expectations. China's imports grew by 15.9% in October, less than 17.5% of the expected value and 19.5% of the pre-value, while its exports grew by 6.1%, less than the expected 7% and 9.0% of the pre-value.
 
 
 
贸易,货物贸易进出口,贸易保护主义
 
Trade, trade in goods import and export, trade protectionism
 
 
 
“多方面因素造成10月份人民币计价进出口增速低于预期。”商务部研究院国际市场研究所副所长白明说,进出口增速的减缓趋势可以从上个月的数据和指标中看出,例如外贸先导指数的下降。10月份进出口增速变缓是普遍现象,不止在中国,中国周边的一些地区10月份进出口增速均有不同程度的减缓。此外,人民币贬值幅度减小,世界经济不稳定性和不确定性增大都会造成贸易增长变缓。
 
"Many factors caused the growth rate of RMB imports and exports in October is lower than expected." Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, said that the slowing trend of import and export growth can be seen from last month's data and indicators, such as the decline of the leading foreign trade index. It is a common phenomenon that import and export growth slowed down in October, not only in China, but also in some areas around China. In addition, the decrease of RMB depreciation and the increase of world economic instability and uncertainty will slow down trade growth.
 
 
 
白明表示,未来我国的进出口将经历从快速增长到稳步增长的阶段变化,出口增长和国民经济增长大致同步,而进口将增长相对较快。
 
Bai Ming said that in the future, China's import and export will undergo a period of change from rapid growth to steady growth. Export growth and national economic growth will roughly synchronize, while import growth will be relatively fast.
 
 
 
数据显示,前10个月,中国对美国、欧盟、日本、东盟市场进出口均较快增长。而10月份,中国对欧盟、日本、俄罗斯、澳大利亚出口增速上升,对美国、加拿大、印度、巴西出口明显下滑但仍保持较高增速,对部分亚洲经济体出口增速降幅较大。
 
Data show that in the first 10 months, China's imports and exports to the United States, the European Union, Japan and ASEAN markets all grew rapidly. In October, China's exports to the European Union, Japan, Russia and Australia increased, while exports to the United States, Canada, India and Brazil declined significantly, but still maintained a relatively high growth rate, while exports to some Asian economies declined considerably.
 
 
 
对此,白明认为,考虑到欧美国家的贸易保护主义比较严重,欧美等国的经济出现好转并不表明我国外需向好。此外,中国的劳动密集型产业受到东南亚地区廉价劳动力的竞争冲击更加严重。
 
In this regard, Bai Ming believes that taking into account the serious trade protectionism in Europe and the United States, the economic improvement in Europe and the United States does not mean that China's external demand is better. In addition, China's labor-intensive industries have been more severely impacted by the competition of cheap labor in Southeast Asia.
 
 
 
对于未来两个月贸易进出口走势, 对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院院长屠新泉认为,目前我国外贸形势尚可,美国和欧盟的外需稳定但增长基础不牢固,且欧盟目前局势动荡,未来进出口出现波动很正常。
 
As for the trend of trade import and export in the next two months, Tu Xinquan, Dean of China WTO Research Institute of the University of Foreign Economic and Trade, believes that the current situation of foreign trade in China is still acceptable. The external demand of the United States and the European Union is stable but the growth basis is not solid. Moreover, the current situation of the European Union is turbulent, and the fluctuation of import and export in the future is very normal.
 
 
 
有观点认为,10月份进口增速远远高于出口增速,如果长期维持这样的增速差异,中国有可能由长期的贸易顺差国变成逆差国。对此,屠新泉认为,贸易进出口的月度数据波动太大,不能以一个月的增速差异来预测进出口未来的变化趋势。目前来看,中国贸易顺差国的身份仍会持续很长时间,但从长期来看,转变的可能性存在。
 
It is argued that import growth in October is much higher than export growth. If such a difference is maintained for a long time, China may change from a long-term trade surplus country to a deficit country. In this regard, Tu Xinquan believes that the monthly data of trade imports and exports fluctuate too much to predict the future trend of imports and exports by the difference of monthly growth rate. At present, China's status as a trade surplus country will continue for a long time, but in the long run, the possibility of change exists.

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